America’s third-largest city will elect its new mayor on Tuesday after a long and acrimonious campaign that threatens to further entrench local racial and ideological differences.
The two candidates competing are the former Chicago public schools chief, Paul Vallas — the white, relatively moderate candidate endorsed by the police union — and a Cook County commissioner, Brandon Johnson — a Black, liberal darling of national Democratic leaders and the city’s teachers union.
According to a poll released by Northwestern University, the two men are now tied, 44 to 44.
Mr. Johnson has a nearly 30-point lead among the city’s Black voters while Mr. Vallas leads by only nine points among his fellow white Chicagoans. The third-largest ethnic group in the city, Latinos, are trending toward Mr. Vallas by 11 points.
The city’s two most powerful unions are putting their weight behind their chosen candidates just days out from election day, with the police supporting Mr. Vallas and teachers backing Mr. Johnson.
Crime has consistently remained the number one concern of Chicago voters throughout the nearly year-long campaign. During Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s tenure, thousands of officers resigned in response to her crime policies and the actions of state attorney Kim Foxx, an advocate for cashless bail and pretrial release. According to the Chicago Police Department database, 22 police officers have died since the beginning of this year.
Mr. Vallas received the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police before the first round of voting, and it became a major point of contention. The president of the order, John Catanzara, has close ties to President Trump and recently hosted Governor DeSantis during his book tour.
Mr. Johnson has made much use of the police union endorsement during his campaign, as well as an unearthed video showing Mr. Vallas describing himself as “more of a Republican than a Democrat.”
A Chicago-based pollster who has covered this race from the start, Rod McCulloch, told the Sun that the police union endorsement has helped Mr. Vallas consolidate a highly-motivated, deeply-anxious part of Chicago that is concerned about crime.
The Northwestern University poll shows that Mr. Vallas’s supporters are far more interested in the race than Mr. Johnson’s and are more likely to vote in the election.
“There’s no question where his support comes from,” Mr. McCulloch said of Mr. Vallas. “It comes from the northwest part of the city and the southwest part of the city, where a lot of first responders live.”
Mr. McCulloch said that Mr. Johnson’s clearest path to victory is going negative on Mr. Vallas. “It depends whether or not they can make the ‘Paul Vallas is a Republican’ thing stick,” Mr. McCulloch said.
Civilians aren’t the only ones concerned about the rise in crime. Police themselves feel they are being let down by city leaders. The president of the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police told the New York Times that between 800 and 1,000 police officers will resign should Mr. Johnson be elected on Tuesday, leading to “blood in the streets.” That is nearly 10 percent of the current police force, on top of the 13 percent who resigned during Ms. Lightfoot’s tenure.
Even a former congressman, Bobby Rush, a revolutionary Black Panther in his youth, says he cannot stand the crime in the city. He recently endorsed Mr. Vallas, saying that, as a father whose son was murdered on the streets of Chicago, he “cannot be anti-police.”
Mr. Johnson has steadily been gaining ground on Mr. Vallas since the first round of voting last month. Just two weeks ago, Mr. Johnson was behind by two points, and in February he was behind by 13 points.
Mr. Johnson’s ties to the teachers union could possibly come back to haunt him, as charter schools have grown in popularity among Chicagoans in recent years. According to a February poll, 62 percent of the city’s residents now support school choice after a 2019 public schools teacher strike that paralyzed the city for weeks.
Mr. Johnson has, in recent weeks, received support from national figures in the liberal wing of the Democratic party. He has been campaigning often with the Reverend Al Sharpton, and he recently received the endorsement of both the Reverend Jesse Jackson and Senator Sanders of Vermont.
