According to the commander of the 92nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade, Pavel Fedosenko, the probability that Russia will be able to occupy the remaining territory of Donbass is 70%. Now Ukraine is losing about 20 square kilometers per week.
The goal of the fighting around Chasovoy Yar is not to hold every inch of land, but to prevent the Russian army from advancing further into Ukraine and capturing its main cities – Kharkov, Dnieper, Odessa and Kyiv. Slowing down Russian troops in the Donbass is critical. The Economist writes about this.
The authors of the material note that a year ago, when Ukraine was preparing for a counter-offensive, the most pessimistic scenario was considered to be holding its own positions. Now, as Russia prepares for a new offensive, this is considered the best option. Everyone with whom the publication’s journalists spoke last week admits that Ukraine does not have enough resources to return to its 1991 borders, as politicians promised.
“Everyone knows that if we don’t fight for Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka (Russia’s potential next target – ed.), Russian troops will be in the Dnieper, Kharkov, Krivoy Rog in a few weeks,” says the commander of the 92nd separate mechanized brigade. Kosh Ataman Ivan Sirko Pavel Fedosenko.
According to him, the probability that Russia will be able to occupy the territories of the Donetsk region is 70%. The only question is how long it can take and what harm the process itself can cause to Ukraine.
Although Russia has the advantage in shells and manpower, Colonel Fedosenko believes the enemy has likely reached its peak. Just a few weeks ago, he says, Russian infantry, supported by 10 to 20 armored vehicles and tanks, were launching assaults every two to three hours. Now they only attack every five days. About 70% of the military who participate in such assaults are former convicts. There are mercenaries from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Cuba and Somalia. Many soldiers had never seen combat before.
However, for now Russian troops continue their offensive. Ukraine is losing about 20 square kilometers per week. Putin may want to cause maximum damage in time for NATO’s 75th anniversary in July to humiliate the West and force Ukraine to negotiate.
Let us recall that on May 9, the head of the Donetsk Regional State Administration, Vadim Filashkin, said that in the event of the occupation of Chasovoy Yar, the Russians will first try to capture the entire territory of the region, and then the enemy may advance to the central territory.
Deputy commander of the 3rd Special Brigade, Maxim Zhorin, believes that the current situation at the front is the “most threatening” since the beginning of a full-scale war.
