Rishi Sunak’s constituency of Richmond is in the north of the country, far from the major cities of Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool. Heathland stretches between rolling hills. There are sheep and a small market town, Northallerton, founded 1000 years ago at the request of the Bishops of Durham. The Tories have won every election here since 1910. Most recently, Sunak also won a huge majority. Almost two thirds of the votes cast in 2019 went to the Conservative party leader. His Labor rival was far behind, getting just 16 percent.
Five years later everything is different. When parliament is re-elected in the autumn, Sunak’s majority in Richmond will no longer be secure. The election research firm Electoral Calculus predicts the ruling party’s most dramatic defeat in more than a century. Accordingly, the Tories will lose 285 seats and are only represented in the next lower house with a rump group of around 80 MPs, while Labor candidates are predicted to win in 452 constituencies.
