– Not unlikely that it has started – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries

– No, the Ukrainian offensive has not yet started, Zagorodnyuk says matter-of-factly.

He was Ukrainian Minister of Defense from 2019-2020. Now he is an adviser to Ukrainian authorities. He is also appointed to the Center for defense strategy.

He points out that the Ukrainian counterattack against the Russian occupation forces is unlikely to be as many expect.

– The implementation of the offensive will not be super dramatic like in the movies. It won’t be very big. Rather, it will be a chain of events, and not just in one direction, says the former defense minister to NRK.

All journalists would like to know when the long-announced offensive will start from the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian adviser believes that it will not be long to wait now.

– The offensive can happen tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or any time now.

Zagorodnyuk says that the fighting and unrest that is happening in Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border has an important purpose. Namely, to draw Russian forces away from the front line and weaken their ability to defend themselves there.

Video creates expectations

In a clip sent out by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, several soldiers whisper to the camera. But when does the offensive start?

– Planar loves stillness. There will be no start announcement, writes the ministry at the end.

The message is clear: Do not tell where we are and where we are going. Maybe something will happen soon.

Since the very first signs of spring appeared on the battlefield, there has been speculation about the coming offensive.

Now the Ukrainian president says they can strike. But the details are as secret as before.

– To be honest, this can happen in many ways, but we will carry out an offensive, and we are ready, Zelenskyj said in a speech on Saturday.

There are still some things that can be said for sure. NRK has spoken to a military expert and a disinformation expert about what we can expect in the future.

– Do not disclose information

– The first and most important thing about the Ukrainian video is probably to increase the operational and information security of the Ukrainian forces.

This is according to Eskil Grendahl Sivertsen, who works with influence operations at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute, FFI.

He points out that Ukrainians observing the Ukrainian forces must not reveal sensitive information about where they are, how many there are and what kind of military equipment and weapons they have.

– The greater the element of surprise, the greater the chance of success with an offensive when he arrives, says the expert.

He thinks so and it is important to make the Russians nervous and as tired as possible before the offensive begins. They should not know where, when or how the offensive will be carried out.

Furthermore, the video can help to maintain the Ukrainian fighting morale and the will to defend both militarily and civilly. Many people probably know that something has to happen soon, and here you get the clear impression that now is the future.

– Furthermore, it is important to maintain the support of all Ukraine’s supporters who have donated weapons, equipment and money. Great expectations and a lot of hope are attached to the fact that a Ukrainian counter-offensive must come soon – and be successful, says Grendahl Sivertsen.

– Not unlikely that it has started

Russia says on Monday that the Ukrainians launched a major offensive in Donetsk county last weekend, but suffered heavy losses without advancing. The information has not been confirmed in any other way.

Tormod Heier is head of research at the Staff School in the Norwegian Armed Forces, and is professor of military strategy and operations. He believes that the Ukrainian offensive may have already started.

– It is not improbable that a major Ukrainian counter-offensive has started, because it is something we have been waiting for for months.

– If there is an offensive underway, then the entire Ukrainian nation is now in a fateful moment, because now all of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty is at stake.

If they do not succeed, he believes, they will risk losing a good part of their territory forever.

Nevertheless, there is something in the message about the “major offensive” in Donetsk that is jarring, according to Heier.

– When the Russians write that there are six brigades that have attacked, and they have been stopped, then I start to wonder if this is nonsense, then. False.

– The Russians do not have any defensive forces that are suitable to stop such an armored fist that would then penetrate Russia’s most vulnerable front section. But that is not the same as saying that nothing has happened.

Ukraine rejects

Ukrainian military authorities deny this afternoon the Russian reports that they have launched an offensive.

– Why do the Russians publish information about a counter-offensive? Because they need to divert attention from the defeat around Bakhmut, says Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar on the messaging app Telegram, according to the news agency Reuters.

She also points out that Ukrainian forces have switched to what are called “offensive actions” in some areas along the front line.

According to Reuters, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs says that the country now has enough weapons to launch a counter-offensive. He also believes that the offensive will give Ukraine the victory it needs to join NATO.

Means Russia lies consistently

Grendahl Sivertsen says that in war you want to keep your cards close to your chest when it comes to what to do, when and what capacity you have. You want the other party to have the worst possible chance of being able to defend themselves. One must always be able to surprise, it is absolutely central here to achieve one’s goals.

– The overall picture here is that both Ukraine and Russia operate with intent as a central part of the warfare, points out the expert.

He points out that Russia consistently lied all the time, and that it is not possible to trust Russian sources.

– But not everything is a lie. From time to time something can come out that is true. But whether the claims about the offensive are true is impossible to know.

It may be that the Russians want to send a message to the Ukrainians that the offensive is not going so well. It may be that they want to send a message to the Russian population that the Russian army has repulsed the Ukrainian offensive.

Can be a “fool measure”

In recent months, the Ukrainians have kept their cards very close to their chests. So the world probably won’t hear it from them when the shock comes.

Heier believes that it is extremely important that the Russian military does not get insight into how they think, so that they are able to keep the offensive going once it has started.

– This could be a deliberate Ukrainian misdirection where a covert attack is carried out to attract Russian attention and Russian reserves and reinforcement forces.

But the soldiers and tanks and drones they encounter there will not be the main force, he says further.

– This front line is about a thousand kilometers long, and it is unlikely that the Russians, with 200,000 inside Ukraine and 300,000 outside the Ukrainian borders, will manage to have full control and set up a very strong impenetrable defense.

– In this sense, it can be seen as a first phase of a Ukrainian offensive where it starts with so-called fool measures.

Especially important for Ukraine in the future, Heier believes, will be primarily to gain control of the area around the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya.

In addition to this, he believes they will prioritize cutting off access to the Sea of ​​Azov, so that the Russians cannot use the land corridor they need to transport regular supplies to the Crimean peninsula.