The American Institute for War Research (ISW) in its latest report indicated that a terrorist attack by the Russians at the occupied Zaporozhian Nuclear Power Plant is unlikely, but after blowing up the Dnieper dam in Nova Kakhivka, it cannot be ruled out.
ISW analysts had previously assessed that Russian forces would not be able to control the consequences of a “deliberate accident” at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, and that such an accident could worsen Russia’s ability to consolidate its occupation of southern Ukraine, as part of the region would be uninhabitable and unmanageable.
“However, Russia’s destruction of the Dnieper dam in Nova Kakhovka also had a negative impact on Russian forces, and thus possible Russian sabotage plans at the Zaporozhian Nuclear Power Plant cannot be ruled out.”
– notes ISW.
Analysts presented three scenarios for a possible “deliberate radiological incident” at the plant. In the first of them, the Russians could drop irradiated water from the Zaporizhia power plant into the Kakhovsky Reservoir to prevent the Ukrainians from crossing the already largely drained reservoir.
In the second scenario, Russian forces could create a radioactive cloud that would cover a large area of southern Ukraine, but according to ISW, the reactors are designed in such a way that this would be difficult to implement.
Ultimately, the occupiers could cause a small-scale accident to prevent an offensive by the Ukrainian army near the plant itself.
“For either of these possibilities, the military benefits to Russian forces do not outweigh the possible (negative) consequences,” the think tank stressed.
The Russian Federation continues its policy of accusing Ukraine of its own intentions, the center noted. The ISW described the words of the spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, about Ukraine’s alleged preparations to attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as “absurd and typical of the Kremlin’s information policy.”
In conclusion, analysts note that the threat of an accident at the power plant may be used by Russia to intimidate Ukraine in order to stop a counteroffensive in the south, as well as to put pressure on the West ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The Zaporozhian Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, is located near the city of Enerhodar in southern Ukraine. Since March 2022, it has been occupied by Russian troops. In recent days, the Ukrainian authorities have informed about the decreasing presence of Russians at the power plant and fears that they are preparing a terrorist attack.
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