The authoritarian leader of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenko, probably wants to use the armed mercenary Wagner Group to increase his room for maneuver against the Kremlin’s efforts to absorb his country, writes the American Institute for War Research (ISW) in its latest analysis.
Referring to Lukashenka’s speech on Tuesday, in which he described in detail his role in resolving the crisis between the owner of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Vladimir Putin, the Institute of Internal Affairs writes that if his words are true, they testify to Lukashenka’s political efficiency and ability to exert influence on the highest echelons of Russian power.
Lukashenko as a mediator?
Lukashenka’s detailed argument indicates that he successfully mediated a crisis within Putin’s inner circle, which he was unable to do
– writes ISW.
According to the institute, Lukashenko most likely joined the mediation in part to signal to Putin and other high officials in the Kremlin that Lukashenko is no joke and that he can function effectively and independently in Russian politics. Regardless of whether Lukashenko’s boasting is true, it is humiliating for Putin, especially since he has not corrected it, the ISW assesses.
The Institute expressed its belief that Lukashenko may try to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to reduce the structural dependence of the Belarusian army on the Russian armed forces and to rebuild the potential of the Belarusian army, which is largely organizationally dependent on the Russian Western Military District.
Belarus currently has no experience in conducting large-scale operations or organizing exercises above the battalion level. The main source of knowledge and experience of Belarus in higher operational activities are the maneuvers organized by Russia
– writes ISW, emphasizing that the Wagner Group has such experience.
The Institute cautions that it is not known whether Lukashenko’s calculations will come true, as the operational subordination of the Belarusian army to the Russian general staff has been a reality for many years and it may be difficult to dismantle such deep institutional ties. Nevertheless, the current crisis of regime stability in Russia may open up new opportunities for Minsk.
The ongoing Putin-Lukashenka-Prigozhyn power game is not over yet and will continue to have short- and long-term consequences that could benefit Ukraine
– evaluates the ISW. The institute emphasizes, for example, that the director of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, announced on Tuesday that Rosgvardiya would receive heavy weapons and tanks. The transfer of these weapons in order to increase internal security in Russia means that they will not be able to be used in Ukraine.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the transfer of the heavy military equipment of the Wagner Group to the Russian Armed Forces, which indicates the intention of the Ministry of Defense to atomize the Group. This, in turn, indicates that the Wagner Group is unlikely to be used to reinforce the front line in Ukraine any time soon.
What does the presence of the Wagner Group mean for neighboring countries?
The deployment of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus will increase uncertainty in all neighboring countries, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said on Tuesday in The Hague.
If the Wagner Group deploys its serial killers in Belarus, all neighboring countries will face an even greater danger of destabilization
Nauseda said after consultations in The Hague ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The Lithuanian president also stressed that during the Alliance’s summit to be held on July 11-12, allied countries should provide Ukraine with a clear political path to NATO membership and simplify it as much as possible.
Another issue we will discuss in Vilnius is the future of Ukraine and its relations with NATO . Lithuania is a strong supporter of Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Ukraine is part of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. We must agree on Ukraine’s political path to NATO membership and make this path as simple as possible. We support the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council, the inaugural meeting of which may be held in Vilnius
said the Lithuanian leader.
Nauseda also expressed hope that NATO in Vilnius would be able to welcome Sweden as the 32nd member of the Alliance.
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