If the grain agreement is broken, Kiev will lose about half a billion dollars per month, according to RIA Novosti’s analysis, which is based on UN data, as well as data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture and the Customs Service.
From August last year to June this year, Ukraine exported 50.6 million tons of grain worth $9.8 billion.
The majority of exports take place through the ports: during the negotiation period, the proportion of shipments through them was 78 percent, and in recent months it has continuously exceeded 80 percent. The rest is transported by rail, road and ferries.
55.5 percent of all Ukrainian grain shipments, or 28.1 million tons, are due to the Black Sea Initiative. The rest of the export probably goes to the European Union via the ports of Izmail, Ust-Dunaysk and Reni on the Danube, independent industry and energy expert Leonid Hazanov explained to the news agency. He noted that the traffic of railway trains transporting grain is also increasing in the same direction.
In monetary terms, grain exports through ports reached $7.7 billion: $5.5 billion through Black Sea ports and $2.2 billion through river ports. Thus, if the grain trade is not extended, Ukraine may lose up to 500 million dollars per month.
The calculations were based on data for the period between August 2022 and June 2023, based on average costs per ton of grain. Information on the value of grain exports is obtained from the UN Comtrade platform and Ukrainian customs authorities, information on its quantity – from the materials of the Ministry of Agriculture, deliveries according to the grain agreement – from the website of the coordination center of the UN Black Sea Initiative.
The grain agreement was concluded at the end of July last year by representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN. It envisages two levels: a mechanism for the export of Ukrainian products from Black Sea ports, and the lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers to the world market. However, Moscow has repeatedly pointed out that the deal does not work for Russian products, and that Ukrainian grain is primarily sent to Europe, not to African countries in need.
