Moscow has long denied the existence of Russian private military companies, then denied any links between the Russian government and the Wagner group, which has been fighting in eastern Ukraine and Syria since 2014 and operates in several African countries.
In 2021, Yevgeny Prigozhin even filed a lawsuit in London against the journalistic investigative organization Bellingcat, questioning journalistic investigations that named him the head of the Wagner group. But after Putin openly announced an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Prigozhin considered himself a “Wagner” leader and claimed that his fighters fought better than units of the Russian army.
On the evening of June 23, the leader of the Wagner PMK, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the Russian regular army had launched a missile attack on the rear camps of the mercenaries. Because of this, Prigozhin’s 25,000 mercenaries allegedly went “to restore justice.” However, Prigozhin said that he allegedly agreed through self-proclaimed Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko to go to Belarus and ordered all his mercenaries to turn back.
After Prigozhin’s attempted coup, Putin also admitted that the Russian government directly funded the Wagner Group, giving it more than $1 billion last year, according to the Russian president. Prigozhin stated that, according to Moscow’s plans, from July 1, independent “Wagner” forces will no longer participate in Russian operations against Ukraine.
In Belarus, after agreeing with Oleksandr Lukashenko, who was negotiating with Yevgeny Prigozhin, camps for fighters of the Communist Party of “Wagner” were built. The first camp for 8,000 people are built in Osypowicze in the Mogilev region, located 200 km from the border with Ukraine.
The information about sending mercenaries to Belarus was confirmed by the relatives of the Wagner family. One of the relatives, referring to her acquaintance, reported that the divisions of the PCW “Wagner”, which remained in Rostov-on-Don, were being sent to Belarus. Another interlocutor of the newspaper said that her husband, who was in Rostov on Saturday, informed her about leaving for Belarus “most likely”, but did not contact her again.
“They will talk about weapons: which worked and which did not. Both about tactics and weapons, about how to attack and how to defend. It’s priceless. This is what we should take from the Wagnerians.” Lukashenko said.
The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, hopes that by transferring mercenaries from the PMC “Wagner” after an attempted coup d’état in the Russian Federation, he will strengthen his own army and also balance the campaign to absorb Belarus into the “Union State”. The analysts of the Institute of War Research came to such conclusions. Experts believe that Lukashenka is probably seeking to establish strict control over the “Wagnerian” forces heading to Belarus.
Thus, the Belarusian dictator emphasized that the Polish Military Contingent would not open recruitment centers in Belarus, as was the case in the Russian Federation, while Belarusians and presumably other citizens would be admitted to the “Wagnerian” structures in Belarus. According to Lukashenko’s statements, the “Wagner group” will primarily be a partner in training and advising the Belarusian army.
He also stated that the “Wagnerians” are better trained than the Belarusian army, and that his soldiers can take advantage of the vast combat experience of these mercenaries. Lukashenko rejected claims that the Belarusian authorities had already started setting up field camps for “Wagnerians”, but announced that Belarus would organize camps if the militants demanded it.
Thus, Lukashenko may try to use the “wagnerites” to restore the lost capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, which have been largely delegated to the Western Military District of the Russian Federation. Belarus has not recently had any experience in conducting large-scale operations or organizing exercises above the battalion level. The main source of knowledge and experience of Belarus for higher operational activities are exercises organized by Russia, such as “The West”, “Union Shield” and “Indestructible Brotherhood”.
In addition, Lukashenka is probably trying to use the “Wagnerians” in Belarus to “buy” room for maneuver to counterbalance the Kremlin’s campaign to take over Belarus by the “Union State”, experts say. Lukashenko intervened as an intermediary, possibly partly to make it clear to Putin and other senior Kremlin officials that Moscow should not play tricks on Lukashenka and that Lukashenka is able to operate effectively and independently in Russian politics. ISW experts add that Lukashenko’s boast that he can manipulate influential personalities from Putin’s inner circle is humiliating for the Russian dictator, whether it is true or not.
“The fact that Putin did not question Lukashenko’s account of the events and actually publicly thanked Lukashenko is even more humiliating” the analysts conclude.
Belarus borders three NATO member states – Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The president of the latter, Andrzej Duda, earlier stated that the transfer of the Wagner group to Belarus is a very negative signal for his country.
The foreign ministers of the two Baltic states on Tuesday called on NATO to strengthen its eastern borders in response to the deployment of fighter jets of the private military company “Wagner” in Belarus. The leaders of Poland and Lithuania – NATO countries bordering Belarus – declared the danger of deploying fighters of the Russian private military company “Wagner” on the territory of Belarus, where the ruler of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, gave shelter to the Wagnerites after an attempted mutiny in Russia.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that it is too early to draw conclusions about the consequences of the conflict between “Wagner” leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian authorities, but said that “Moscow and Minsk have sent signals that NATO will defend every ally and every centimeter of NATO territory. Kiev is also closely watching the movement of forces on the territory of Belarus, which Russia has already used to attack Ukraine.
“If Wagner places his serial killers in Belarus, all neighboring countries will face a greater threat of instability. Under these conditions, deterrence and advanced defense are our priority.” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said at a meeting of a group of NATO leaders in the Netherlands on June 27.
“In my opinion, this is a really serious problem that is very worrying. We have discussed it and we need some decisions, very firm decisions. I believe that requires a very, very, very tough response from NATO.” – emphasized the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda, who also participated in this meeting.
According to Duda, the words of the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, who allowed some “Wagnerians” to go to Belarus, “are a very important signal for us.” The Polish president noted that the purpose of transferring the “Wagnerians” to Belarus is unknown.
“Is this goal the occupation of Belarus, or do they pose an additional threat to Ukraine from the north and carry out attacks from Belarusian territory to Ukraine, or is this some form of threat to NATO countries, to Poland?” Duda said.
Russian terror is coming to Poland. With every step of the Russian military boot, war is approaching us. We must stop the bloodthirsty Russian evil. Only our unquestionable aid to Ukraine is capable of this.
Karina Koshel
