Thursday, August 10, 2023 5:26PM
Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center released their mid-season update to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are now forecasting an above-average season with an expected 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and potentially two to five major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is an increase from their prediction in late May which was for an average or normal season.
This increase is a bigger deal this year as it’s an El Nino summer, where conditions typically wouldn’t be as favorable for an active season. But the reason for the upgrade is what ABC13 meteorologists have been talking about all summer: the record water sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and deep tropics. NOAA forecasts believe these extremely warm water temperatures could counteract the usual unfavorable conditions an El Nino pattern could provide. Slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
This seasonal update comes as we approach the peak of hurricane season next month on September 10. And while plumes of Saharan dust are keeping the deep tropics quiet for now, there are signs that the dust could be limited later this month and allow for more of the tropical waves coming off of Africa to develop.
Keep in mind this uptick in potential activity is not a landfall forecast.
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