At the same time, if Ukraine can hold out this year and replenish its forces, it may try to counterattack.
The war in Ukraine is now at a critical moment. According to The Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Putin’s strategy to override Western support for Ukraine has proven durable, and the coming months could decisively change the tide of the war in Russia’s favor.
“Without the arrival of fresh manpower and Western military equipment, Ukraine could face further losses of its land and best troops, clouding any hope of regaining almost 20% of its occupied territory,” the newspaper writes.
At the same time, the WSJ notes, Russia is very slowly gaining ground and is suffering heavy losses in personnel and equipment. If Ukraine can hold out this year and replenish its forces, it may try to counterattack. But with the future of American aid uncertain and European countries unable to significantly increase aid at a rapid pace, Ukraine’s prospects of turning the war in its favor are dimming.
The front line barely moves, thanks to Ukrainian courage and ingenuity and Russian tactical weaknesses.
“We are more efficient and more technologically advanced,” said a Ukrainian officer who commands an aviation and drone unit near Avdiivka. “They return home after any defeat, but we lose our land, our homes, our people.”
Russia is now trying to advance on several fronts. Russia’s critical target is the town of Chasov Yar, located high up west of Bakhmut. Capturing Chasovoy Yar will open the way for attacks on other cities, such as Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region, which is a main target for Putin.
At the same time, some Western military intelligence officials believe that Russia is now focused less on making immediate territorial gains and more on eroding Ukraine’s ability and will to fight. Russia’s increased drone and missile attacks are intended to demonstrate its strength, degrade Kyiv’s resources and show Ukraine’s Western supporters that its support is in vain.
Severe recent damage to Ukrainian infrastructure indicates the country’s air defense capabilities are declining, analysts say.
In addition, the lack of significant additional manpower in Ukraine means that losses are compensated in stages in units that remain on one sector of the front for a long time. While this means they are familiar with the situation, it also creates a mosaic of units from different brigades trying to communicate and collaborate effectively, the newspaper notes.
War in Ukraine – analysts’ opinions
As The New York Times noted, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is increasingly deteriorating. Ukraine faces three critical challenges: a shortage of ammunition, a lack of well-trained troops, and a reduction in air defense. Now, as Russia escalates its attacks, each individual problem amplifies the impact of other vulnerabilities and increases the risk of Russian troops breaking through Ukrainian defenses.
Politico wrote that the success of Russian occupation forces in Chasovy Yar would jeopardize the security of other cities in the Donetsk region.
And ISW predicts that the Russian Federation can achieve operationally significant successes during its next offensive.
