Slow economic growth will push France out of the list of the world’s ten largest economies within five years, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated global forecast.
The Washington-based institution expects that France’s contribution to global economic growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP), will drop to 1.98 percent by 2029, compared to 2.2 percent measured by IMF analysts last year.
According to the fund’s latest forecasts, France’s budget deficit will remain above 4% until 2029, and public debt is expected to exceed 115% of gross domestic product (GDP). In its response to France’s 2024 budget plan, the European Commission previously indicated potential conflicts with EU budget rules and stressed that the current outlook risks a negative downgrade by global credit rating agencies.
According to the database updated by the organization at the beginning of this month, Great Britain – whose share of global gross domestic product growth is expected to be 2.2 percent in purchasing power parity in 2029 – will be the tenth largest economy in the world. Meanwhile, Turkey is forecast to move to ninth place as its share of global growth over the next five years will be 2.09%.
The largest contributor to the global economy will be China, which is projected to account for 19.48% of global GDP growth by 2029, followed by the US (14.72%), India (9.23%), Japan (3 .21%) and Indonesia (2.79%). Germany (2.77%), Russia (2.71%) and Brazil (2.19%) are also expected to enter the top ten.
Earlier this month, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for this year, concluding that the global economy has proved to be “surprisingly resilient”.
Economists expect global GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2024, up a modest 0.1 percentage point from the previous January forecast. Next year, growth is expected to increase at the same rate, by 3.2%.
