Analysts clarified that the Kremlin still retains the possibility of further mobilizing the economy and population to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity.
The restoration of financial and military assistance to Ukraine from the United States will be a critical and turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated April 20, 2024.
“The likely restoration of security for U.S. aid to Ukraine marks a critical turning point in the war in Ukraine, but additional decisions must still be made by the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine that will determine the nature and outcome of the fighting,” the report said.
Analysts clarified that the Kremlin still retains the possibility of further mobilizing the economy and population to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity. Russia may resort to decisions that are unpopular within the country if it considers them necessary.
Important
Critical lack of air defense in Ukraine allows Russians to advance near Chasov Yar, – ISW
Ukraine instead faces ongoing challenges related to the formation and maintenance of its armed forces and its defense industry.
“The United States and its Western allies must provide regular and consistent assistance to Ukraine, and timely and effectively deliver new critical systems to the Ukrainian military, so that Western security assistance has an operationally meaningful effect,” ISW noted.
In recent months, due to uncertainty about the resumption of US aid to Ukraine, the ISW has considered a very wide range of forecasts, from the most favorable to the most dangerous possible consequences.
“ISW is likely to narrow this range in the coming months as the security implications of Western assistance to Ukraine become clearer and the Kremlin decides how to respond,” the report said.
Let us recall that, according to ISW forecasts, in the next few weeks Russian troops will intensify offensive operations, as well as the intensity of missile attacks, because Ukraine is experiencing an acute shortage of material and technical means and is waiting for help from the United States, which creates a “window” of opportunity for the Russians.
In an April 19 ISW report, analysts noted that the weakness and limitations of Ukrainian air defenses are allowing Russian occupation forces to advance quickly on the ground, particularly near Chasovoy Yar. At the same time, ISW acknowledged that Ukraine is capable of launching long-range strikes to shoot down Russian strategic aircraft, which could temporarily limit Russian aviation operations.
