A two-day raid from Ukraine into Russia’s Belgorod region may force the Kremlin to regroup its troops along the frontline as Kiev prepares for a counter-offensive. This is how the situation related to the attacks in the Belgorod region is assessed by analysts quoted by Reuters today.
Although the authorities in Kiev deny it, the raid carried out over the last two days by troops identifying themselves as Russian opposition forces was almost certainly coordinated with the Ukrainian military, which is preparing to retake the occupied territories – point out the experts interviewed by Reuters.
The Ukrainians are trying to divert the attention of the Russians in different directions to create gaps in the lines of defense and force them to send reinforcements, says Neil Melvin, an analyst at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
The Russians will have to react to these attacks and deploy many troops along the entire bordereven if it will not be the direction of the Ukrainian attack – adds the expert.
The Ukrainian authorities have long announced a large counter-offensive to retake the territories occupied by the Russians. In the south and east of Ukraine, the occupiers have prepared extensive systems of fortifications to stop the attack.
The raid of the Russian militants took place near the border with the Sumy Oblast of Ukraine, about 200 km in a straight line from Donbas, where the current fighting is concentrated.
Attack on the Belgorod region
On Monday, the volunteer formations of the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion announced that they had crossed the border and were “liberating” border towns from the rule of the Russian authorities. On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the end of the “anti-terrorist operation” launched the day before and the expulsion of the militants. The Ukrainian authorities assure that they are not involved in the incidents in the Russian border region.
As Mark Galeotti, an expert on the Russian military, points out, the two Russian opposition formations consist of opponents of the Kremlin with different political persuasions, from liberals to anarchists and neo-Nazis.
“They hope that they will contribute, at least to a small extent, to the fall of the Putin regime, but we must remember that these are not independent forces … they are controlled by Ukrainian military intelligence.”
– underlines.
Galeotti adds that the whole incident looked like a planned Ukrainian operation, the purpose of which was to disperse Russian troops and to instill fear in the Kremlin that its own citizens might rise up against it.
This operation also served to raise the morale of the Ukrainians Melvin points out.
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