The Global warming has a dramatic impact on the world, according to a new study World economy. According to calculations, there is a risk of around 2050 by 2050 a fifth to shrink – even if emissions of climate-damaging gases were drastically reduced in the future.
Otherwise, significantly greater economic damage can be expected, as researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) calculated in a study published in the journal Nature.
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Damages are 6 times higher than costs for protective measures
The researchers calculated damage of 38 trillion US dollars (35.7 trillion euros) per year. This damage would be 6 times higher than the estimated costs for climate protection measures to limit global warming to a maximum 2 degreeswrite the authors.
This is what the percentage income change in 2049 could look like compared to an economy without climate change
© Kotz et al., Nature
Poorest countries most severely affected
Depending on the region, the expected damage varies greatly. The poorest and countries least responsible for climate change will be hit hardest, the study says. For Germany – as well as for the USA – the researchers say up to 2050 a shrinking of the economy 11 percent compared to a scenario without climate impacts.
For Austria it should be in Vienna and in Burgenland the largest declines in income, namely by -15.7 percent, give. Become in Lower Austria -14.7 percent expected, in Upper Austria -13.9 percent and in Styria -11.9 percent. Carinthia (-9.97 percent), Vorarlberg (-9.6 percent) and Tyrol (-8.2 percent) are better off. ORF reports this. The fact that the east is more severely affected is due to the greater warming in flat regions, according to the researchers.
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High income losses in Europe
The information refers to a scenario in which it is possible to get on a path that can limit global warming to below 2 degrees by the end of the century. According to the United Nations, the current climate protection plans are not yet sufficient.
“For most regions, including North America and Europelarge income losses are forecast, with South Asia and Africa hardest hit,” wrote Maximilian Kotz, one of the study authors. “These losses are caused by a wide variety of economically relevant effects of climate change, such as consequences for agricultural yields, labor productivity or Infrastructure.” Damages caused by Storms or Forest fires are not included, but could further increase the amount of damage.
Data evaluated over 40 years from 1,600 regions
For the calculation, the researchers used data from the past 40 years from more than 1,600 regions evaluated how extreme weather events have influenced economic growth. Based on climate models, they calculated what this would likely be like in the coming years 26 years will have an economic impact.
researcher Leonie Wenz pointed out that the expected damage was the result of the greenhouse gases that had already been emitted. In order to cushion this, adjustment measures are needed. “In addition, we must reduce our CO2 emissions drastically and immediately – otherwise the economic losses will be even higher in the second half of the century and up to a global average by the end of the century 60 percent amount,” said Wenz.
The Potsdam team’s current calculations are surprisingly close to those Star Report known forecasts that the Economist Nicholas Stern just before 20 years calculated on behalf of the British government: Climate change is threatening the international economy with a decline of around 20 percentsaid the study presented in 2006. The conclusion back then was that climate protection was expensive – but no climate protection was even more expensive.
