Israel rocketed Iran and thus responded to their last week’s missiles. We analyzed the conflict with Pavlo Kalinića good connoisseur of opportunities in the Middle East and a security expert.
What did Israel want to achieve with this attack?
“Israel’s main problem at the moment is to end its rather unsuccessful operation in the Gaza Strip. In that area, about the size of Brac, they have herded a million and a half people around Rafah. They also don’t want to expand with Iran, but they want to solve it. This the attack was at Isfahan, they targeted the radar. They actually targeted Natanz, they did that when they launched the attack on Rafah in Gaza. Netanyahu and Biden have agreed that they are allowed that there will be no major response to Iran, but that in return they have the right to carry out their action which will be a massacre for the unfortunate Palestinians. When the planes took off and attacked Rafah, three key missiles were fired that targeted the radar system, which was not significantly damaged. The very Iranian response to the Israeli attack on the consular mission in Damascus was to escalate not to escalate. The Americans managed to bring it down, but the Palestinians will pay the price as they have been paying for the last 70 years.”
What is the message of the Israeli counterattack towards Iran?
“They had to answer for their public, for their position, for Benjamin Netanyahu, as the longest-serving prime minister, to satisfy the radical right wing, which provides him with a majority. Many are not satisfied with that answer, neither in terms of strength nor in the way. He managed to achieve the primary goal – to start to a definitive confrontation with the last remnants of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.”
What do you think, is the Middle East on the verge of war? Should we fear a nuclear war?
“So far, Israel is the only country that has nuclear potential. Israel will certainly not be able to do it alone. However, every day, Iran is getting closer to it, and this will significantly change the geostrategic position of Iran and the entire environment. The Americans are trying to keep it under control as much as possible. With their veto, they prevented Palestine from becoming a full member of the United Nations. That’s all in the agreement not to go with a fierce response to Iran. By the way, there were practically no civilian casualties, except for a Bedouin girl who is a combination of unfortunate circumstances. Israel will certainly do everything in its power to prevent or delay Iran becoming a nuclear power, whether the US likes it or not Trump in Washington.”
Has Netanyahu yielded to the West?
“He achieved his main goal, that he has a free hand so that the war can continue. The war answers him in any case, because then he has no problems at home with the court and corruption. The story also opens up on the other side. You have Slovenia, Malta, Spain , countries that want to recognize (Palestine). The European Union used to have a common position. Croatia has no position on anything, even more talented ones will come is that this is the problem that arose with the plan of 1947. However, my opinion is that the only solution is a two-state solution in which neither Israel nor Palestine will be satisfied, but they will be equally dissatisfied. This must be guaranteed by the US, China , India, Russia and all the surrounding countries.”
How do you think the conflict between Iran and Israel will end?
“It will end the moment the turbulence that is happening below disappears. You must know that the Pax Americana is slowly disintegrating. The US first lost control over Iran. Meanwhile, they lost control over Turkey and over Saudi Arabia, which is their biggest loss, that is as if they are not allied with Great Britain. Now you see the problem with Israel can be solved by phone. Now the situation is getting harder and harder for China mix, Russia is just as good with Tehran and Tel Aviv. There is potential for peace, but for peace to be long-lasting, if Netanyahu does not threaten its very existence, a two-state, peaceful solution must be pursued. Thus, Iran will withdraw its influence. “
