The fight for his place could escalate into an armed conflict.
If the information about Ramzan Kadyrov’s fatal illness is true, then for Putin the stability of Chechnya may be under serious threat.
According to an article in The Sunday Times, Kadyrov’s condition exposes wider problems with Putin’s political system and the consequences of decisions he made back in the 2000s. Thus, Chechnya has long been a thorn in the side of Moscow, which was appeased only through harsh repressions and bribery of the new Chechen elite.
Although Kadyrov hoped to build a dynasty, his eldest son Akhmat is only 18 years old and cannot lead Chechnya. It is believed that now the main contender for his place is Major General Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen mercenary detachments “Akhmat” who are fighting against Ukraine.
“Moscow views him as a person with whom they can do business, but there are other people close to Kadyrov who may believe that they have great claims to this position. For example, Kadyrov’s cousin Adam Delimkhanov has been the representative of Chechnya in the Duma since 2007 , and has its own armed forces,” the article says.
After the war, stability in Chechnya was bought not only by huge federal subsidies, but also by a balance of terror between rival armed camps that swore allegiance to Kadyrov but distrusted each other. If attempts to install a new leader lead to a split in the elite, this could escalate into an armed confrontation.
This will create a terrible dilemma for Putin, as he will have to deploy Russian forces in the region. If the forces of the Russian Guard turn out to be insufficient, the dictator must choose between two equally difficult options: divert the army to Chechnya and lose momentum in Ukraine, or leave them in Ukraine, risking losing Chechnya and destabilizing the North Caucasus.
No matter how Putin tries to create a cult of personality, his system is based on renting the loyalty of elites by providing them with opportunities to enrich themselves through corruption and embezzlement. “However, these are difficult times, so difficult decisions have to be made, with some leaders and regions still well fed, while others are effectively on meager rations,” the article says.
What is known about Kadyrov’s disease
Rumors that the leader of Chechnya is seriously ill have been spread for a long time. The network paid attention to changes in his appearance and behavior. In the fall, it became known that he had become worse; information appeared that Kadyrov could fall into a coma.
Subsequently, photos and videos of cars of the Chechen elite on the territory of the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital were published online. Kadyrov explained this by saying that he was visiting his relative.
Recently, Novaya Gazeta Europe published an article reporting that in 2019, Kadyrov was diagnosed with pancreatic necrosis.
