Russia is trying to use its superiority in weapons before US help arrives.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines say final approval in the US Congress of a $60 billion military aid package will be a huge boost to morale. Russia presses tirelessly and strives to strengthen its progress.
According to CNN, the Ukraine aid bill will be passed to the Senate today. If passed by the upper house of Congress, President Joe Biden will sign the document immediately.
Ukraine is waiting, and Russia is pressing
Ukraine’s wish list is no secret. Priority is given to artillery shells and air defense systems. For months, Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines have said they are vastly outgunned by Russian troops. President Vladimir Zelensky recently said the ratio is 10 to one in Russia’s favor.
“To win, we need ammunition… our artillery is starving,” said the commander of artillery reconnaissance of the 110th mechanized brigade, call sign “Teren.”
The military man knows what he is talking about, having defended the city of Avdiivka for two years before it fell in February. Since then, Moscow troops have achieved significant success, moving further west.
Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState has tracked a series of Russian offensives over the past week along a railway line towards the center of a large village called Ocheretino.
Although Ocheretino itself is not of strategic importance, it is located on a ridge, making it a desirable military target. An officer from Ukraine’s Eastern Command anonymously said if Russian troops were able to capture and hold the village, it could open vital Ukrainian logistics routes – Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novoselka.
New US military aid is days away from getting the green light, but the question is how quickly vital munitions, particularly 155mm howitzer rounds, can reach the front lines to stop Russia’s advance.
Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder, speaking before the House vote last week, said the US Department of Defense was “prepared to respond quickly” as soon as any order was given.
“As you know, we have a very robust logistics network that allows us to move materiel very quickly. As we have done in the past, we can move within days,” he said.
That message was echoed by Mark Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He hopes the supplies will be “on their way by the end of the week.”
While U.S. officials won’t say it openly, a U.S. source familiar with military aid to Ukraine said much of it has already been stored in warehouses in Germany and Poland, which would obviously reduce the time it takes to get it to Ukraine. . The source also said that artillery shells will arrive in Ukraine first.
Officials in Kyiv will try to get them to where they are needed as quickly as possible. But this would still be a significant logistical challenge given the enormous amount of material available. In other words, the aforementioned 10:1 advantage that Russia currently enjoys will not be destroyed overnight.
The advantage is obvious
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that in the coming weeks Ukraine will likely continue to face shortages of artillery ammunition and air defense capabilities and the corresponding limitations these shortages place on Ukraine’s ability to conduct effective defensive operations.
ISW speculates that Russia may try to attack transportation networks such as railroads to hamper the distribution of military aid and try to speed up the pace of assaults along the front lines before U.S. aid arrives.
One place that could become the focus of an intensified Russian offensive could be the town of Chasov Yar. Numerous reports from Ukrainian soldiers describe heavy fighting in a number of villages between Chasov Yar and Bakhmut. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Alexander Syrsky, said that the Kremlin ordered the capture of the city by May 9.
Chasov Yar is being bombarded from the air with huge guided bombs. Analyst Rob Lee published a series of videos showing Russian Su-25 jets flying unhindered over the city, which he calls “a clear sign of an air defense ammunition shortage.”
Ukraine expects the US to provide a number of surface-to-air missile systems to counter this threat, in addition to more interceptors for the Patriot air defense system.
“We need frontal air defense just as much as we need the protection of our cities and villages,” Zelensky said.
Finally, in addition to its immediate weapons needs, Ukraine will also likely receive the Army’s ATACMS long-range tactical missile systems in the initial tranche of arms supplies. Warner believes they will be part of the first batch.
The US has already provided smaller versions of ATACMS to Ukraine, but Ukrainian officials have made no secret of their desire for a new version. With a range of about 300 kilometers, these missiles will give Kyiv the ability to intensify attacks on Russian airfields, fuel depots and weapons storage sites.
If Ukraine’s European allies think they may now have some breathing room ahead of new aid packages, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has made clear that he sees the US moves as a boost for all allies.
“We can prevent worst-case scenarios if we act together and without fear. Now that you are all here at the table, it is time to act, not debate,” he told an online meeting of EU foreign and defense ministers on Monday, calling for countries that have Patriot and European-made SAMP/T air defense systems, transfer them to Ukraine along with artillery and ammunition.
US assistance
As UNIAN reported, on April 20, the House of Representatives of the United States Congress supported the provision of military assistance to the allies.
Even before the vote, the Pentagon said that they were preparing to quickly send an arms package to Ukraine if it was supported by the Senate and the President.
According to media reports, the White House is preparing to send Ukraine a larger than usual package of military aid. It will include artillery, air defense and armored vehicles.
