Independent observers analyzed the general situation around the HPP and named the beneficiary.
Undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was more necessary for Russia than for Ukraine, and the Russian version of why the Ukrainians could blow up the dam does not stand up to scrutiny. This is stated in the new summary of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that at the moment they do not have objective data on who actually blew up the hydroelectric power station. And while both sides blame each other, the ISW sees Russian involvement as more likely.
So, ISW rejected the version voiced by Kremlin speaker Dmitry Peskov. He claimed that the Ukrainians blew up the dam because the Ukrainian Armed Forces “do not achieve their goals” in the counter-offensive that had begun.
“This explanation is unlikely, as Ukrainian forces have not yet carried out large-scale offensive operations,” analysts said.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Ukrainian forces staged a flood so that they could safely withdraw their troops from the right bank of the Dnieper and transfer them to the east, without fear that the Russians would use this for a new attempt to capture Kherson.
“This explanation is also implausible, since the limited Russian forces on the eastern (left) bank of the river do not pose a significant threat to the western (right) bank, which would require extensive Ukrainian forces to protect against,” the ISW notes.
On the contrary, the Institute’s analysts believe that “the Russians are more and more clearly interested in flooding the lower Dnieper” than the Ukrainians, despite the collateral damage to their own defensive positions.
“Russia could use the flood to widen the Dnieper River and complicate Ukrainian attempts to counter-offensive through an already difficult body of water. Russian sources have expressed strong and unequivocal concern about the possibility that Ukraine is preparing to cross the river and counterattack on the eastern bank of the Kherson region,” the statement reads. ISW summary.
Undermining the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station – what is known
Early in the morning of June 6, videos of the destroyed dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station appeared, through the breach in which water flows from the Kakhovka reservoir in a powerful stream. The flooding of settlements located downstream began very quickly.
The Ukrainian authorities began an urgent evacuation of the population from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. In parallel, an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council was held, at which a plan of action in connection with this disaster was discussed. The Ukrainian authorities have accused Russia of deliberately undermining the dam.
Ukrhydroenergo said that the Kakhovskaya HPP can no longer be restored in its former form. According to their calculations, in four days the Kakhovka reservoir will completely flow into the Black Sea.
