The war in Ukraine destroyed the position of the Russian Federation as a guarantor of regional security.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation significantly changed the relations of the aggressor country with the countries of the post-Soviet camp. In particular, Russia’s overall influence on its immediate neighbors has decreased.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Twitterthe Russian Federation almost certainly continues to view maintaining its influence in these countries as a foreign policy priority, critical for internal security and the economy.
At the same time, the resources spent on the war in Ukraine and the inability of the occupiers to achieve a military breakthrough have called into question Russia’s traditional position as a guarantor of regional security. The violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty has also increased the likelihood of a security threat from Russia. According to British intelligence, the decline in the Russian economy and the risk of secondary sanctions have increased concerns about economic dependence on the aggressor country.
Against the backdrop of this situation, post-Soviet countries have intensified efforts to diversify their economic, political and security relations to reduce their dependence on Russia.
“Although Russia maintains a significant presence, both overt and covert, in the region, the Kremlin’s ability to achieve its goals and objectives has almost certainly declined significantly over the past two years,” the British Ministry of Defense concluded.
War in Ukraine – consequences for Russia
According to experts, the war transition was the most significant short-term impact of the war on the Russian economy. Military spending now amounts to 7% of GDP.
The long-term economic consequences of war are serious and potentially severe. First, over the past 50 years, Russia has lost its most important export market – the sale of oil and gas to Europe.
Secondly, even before the 2022 invasion, the Russian economy was stagnant and in dire need of investment and increased productivity.
CNN also wrote that the Russian economy faces a bleak future. War distorts the economy and drains resources.
