The publication warned that the Russian Armed Forces may intensify their offensive in the next few months. At the same time, Ukraine has problems with weapons, mobilization and defensive structures.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces are short of ammunition and manpower on the front line. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are not reducing pressure and may even intensify the offensive. This is stated in an article by The Economist.
The media warned that there is an “alarming possibility” of a new offensive by the Russian Armed Forces in the next few months. The enemy can break through the defenses and advance deeper.
The Russian occupiers are putting intense pressure on several directions at once after the capture of Avdiivka. They managed to advance 7–10 kilometers west of the city. Moving forward, the invaders are trying to prevent Ukraine from strengthening its defensive lines, but a larger “push” is predicted in the summer.
“The next five to six months could be critical,” said Konrad Muzyka, an analyst at Rochan Consulting and author of the Ukraine Conflict Monitor website.
In his opinion, the priorities for Ukraine are “manpower, fortifications and ammunition.” However, the publication informed that the Defense Forces are suffering from “acute shell hunger.”
“By actively using drones, the Ukrainians were able to partially compensate for the rationed shells. But drones cannot concentrate fire like artillery,” the material says.
It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces are firing at least five shells for each defender along the entire front. Currently, Russia produces approximately three million artillery shells a year, and also receives additional weapons from the DPRK and Iran. At the same time, Europe must produce only 1.4 million shells in 2024, and two million next year.
“The best prospect for easing Ukraine’s situation is the initiative that the Czech government has been quietly working on since the beginning of the war. The Czechs have scoured the world in search of ammunition and have now acquired about 800,000 shells,” the journalists emphasized.
It is expected that the shells, which have already begun to arrive in Ukraine in small quantities, will allow the defencists to “take a break” for several months.
“Other types of ammunition are also in short supply. Ukraine is dangerously short of air defense systems,” the media noted.
Ukraine “urgently” needs additional means to strike Crimea and logistics centers behind enemy lines. The publication suggested that a “significant part” of the Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles had already been used.
“Ukraine also lacks tanks and other combat vehicles, although there is some hope that America can send it hundreds of mothballed Bradley fighting vehicles without requiring additional money from Congress,” the article says.
The problem for which Ukraine itself is being asked to take the blame is mobilization. The average age of Ukrainian military personnel on the front line is 43 years. Their morale is rated “generally high” but the defenders are depleted and in need of rotation.
Ukraine was also blamed for delays in the construction of defensive fortifications. Strengthening the borders was announced only in November, and so far the integrated defense system is only “slowly taking shape.” It includes anti-tank ditches, dragon’s teeth obstacles, minefields, gun emplacements and earthen fortifications to protect infantry.
Let us remind you that the Associated Press described how Ukraine is developing its defense industry in conditions of war. In 2024, the government budgeted 20 times more money for the purchase and development of weapons within the country than it did before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Armed Forces.
Military-political commentator Alexander Kovalenko responded to reports about the allegedly planned attack of the Russian Armed Forces on Kharkov. According to the expert, Russia does not have enough military personnel to carry out this operation.
